For commercial & industrial manufacturers
The certificate schemes pay for a large share of a commercial heat pump
In Victoria (VEU Activity 44) and NSW (ESS Schedule F), a 10–200 kW commercial heat pump water heater earns deemed certificates worth tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars, especially when it replaces electric. Here is the opportunity, drawn from 177 systems we have modelled under AS/NZS 4234.
How the VEU and ESS schemes work for commercial heat pumps
Both are deemed-savings schemes: a product is modelled once, registered, and then every installation creates tradeable certificates that offset the system cost. The schemes target the emissions displaced, so the business case is strongest where a heat pump replaces electric resistance heating.
Replacing electric pays most
Decommissioning electric resistance heating carries the full emissions-factor credit, so it earns the highest certificate count — typically 2–3× a gas replacement of the same size.
Two markets, one model
A product modelled once under AS/NZS 4234 can register for both VEU (VIC, VEECs) and ESS (NSW, ESCs). The NSW scheme typically yields the larger certificate count per system.
Design captures the upside
Identically-sized systems legitimately earn 2–3× different certificate counts depending on control logic, setpoints and COP curve. Good modelling captures the top of the range.
Typical certificate values, replacing electric
Median and P10–P90 range by capacity band, based on a dataset of 177 commercial HPWH systems (10 kW and above) we have modelled under AS/NZS 4234.
| Capacity | VEEC typical | Range (P10–P90) | ≈ value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–75 kW | 335713 | 276–509588–1,082 | $28k$21k |
| 75–150 kW | 9371,991 | 636–1,3701,353–2,913 | $80k$60k |
| 150–300 kW | 2,0764,412 | 1,490–2,8593,162–6,079 | $176k$132k |
| 300 kW+ | 3,9668,434 | 1,701–5,5343,617–11,759 | $337k$253k |
Dollar figures at $85/VEEC.Dollar figures at $30/ESC. Gas replacement and new installations earn lower counts (roughly 40–60% of the electric-replace figures). These are estimates for business-case purposes — a registered certificate quantity requires full AS/NZS 4234 TRNSYS modelling of your specific system.
Estimate your system
The estimator below is pre-filled with a typical 200 kW system — adjust the capacity, tank volume and refrigerant to match yours. Results are a typical midpoint and a P10–P90 range, not a single figure.
Combined thermal capacity of all heat pumps. Modelled range 36–1,163 kW.
Combined storage across all tanks. Modelled range 459–19,092 L.
Refrigerant of the heat pump units.
Spot price moves. Default $85.
We don't publish equipment costs. Enter yours to see how much of it the certificate value offsets.
Estimated VEEC range
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric · ±29% typical error on public inputs
A system like this typically earns 1,547–2,586 VEECs, worth roughly $131,495–$219,810 at $85/VEEC.
At a glance — VEECs by capacity
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric, CO₂, ~5 L/kW storage. Updates with the toggles above.
| Capacity | Typical VEEC | Range (P10–P90) | ≈ value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 kW | 559 | 445–743 | $47,515 |
| 50 kW | 567 | 451–754 | $48,195 |
| 100 kW | 809 | 644–1,076 | $68,765 |
| 200 kW | 1,944 | 1,547–2,586 | $165,240 |
Estimates use the EnergyAE commercial modelling database (177 systems ≥10 kW) and the regulated VEU Activity 44 and ESS Schedule F equations, scaled across the relevant climate zones (VIC zones 4+5, NSW zones 3+5).
Figures are AS/NZS 4234-validated factors (EEFm 0.393, ElecCCF 1.06, GasCCF 0.47, metro network factor). They are an estimate for business-case purposes only — a registered certificate quantity requires full TRNSYS modelling of your specific system.
From product to certificates
Test
Performance tested to EN 14511 / AS/NZS 5125.1.
Model
AS/NZS 4234 TRNSYS modelling finds the certificate-bearing load per climate zone.
Register
Product registered on the VEU and ESS registers.
Create
Each install creates deemed certificates, sold into the scheme market.
EnergyAE handles the full path: testing and certification support, AS/NZS 4234 modelling, and VEU/ESS registration. See our incentive schemes service for the end-to-end offering.
Read more about the commercial schemes
Our guides cover how the VEU and ESS schemes treat commercial heat pumps in detail.
Registering commercial HPWHs for VEU and ESS
The 2026 step-by-step guide to registering a commercial heat pump for VEECs and ESCs.
Read the guide →How modelling results become certificates
How AS/NZS 4234 model outputs convert into VEEC and ESC certificate counts.
Read the guide →Commercial HPWH registration FAQ
Common questions on eligibility, capacity, refrigerants and the registration process.
Read the guide →See all technical guides.
See what your product is worth
Use the estimator above for a quick range, or talk to us about modelling and registering your commercial heat pump for the VEU and ESS schemes.