For commercial & industrial manufacturers
The certificate schemes pay for a large share of a commercial heat pump
In Victoria (VEU Activity 44) and NSW (ESS Schedule F), a commercial heat pump water heater built from units of 10 kW or more earns deemed certificates worth tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars, especially when it replaces electric. The figures below are what systems currently on both registers actually earn.
How the VEU and ESS schemes work for commercial heat pumps
Both are deemed-savings schemes: a product is modelled once, registered, and then every installation creates tradeable certificates that offset the system cost. The schemes target the emissions displaced, so the business case is strongest where a heat pump replaces electric resistance heating.
Replacing electric pays most
Decommissioning electric resistance heating carries the full emissions-factor credit, so it earns the highest certificate count. On the registered systems it runs about 2 to 2.5 times a gas replacement of the same size.
Two markets, one model
A product modelled once under AS/NZS 4234 can register for both VEU (VIC, VEECs) and ESS (NSW, ESCs). NSW issues roughly twice the certificate count, but a VEEC currently trades near $85 against $30 for an ESC, so a Victorian installation is worth around 1.4 times a NSW one.
Design captures the upside
Two systems of the same rated capacity earn certificate counts up to twice apart on the register today, set by control logic, setpoints and the COP curve. Good modelling captures the top of that range.
Small systems have largely been designed out of both schemes
Small means average heat pump capacity below 10 kW, or average storage below 425 L. Average capacity is total heat pump capacity divided by the number of heat pumps, so four 5 kW units are a small system even though they add up to 20 kW. That is the case the 2025 rule changes were aimed at, and 274 of the 346 systems on the VEU register fall into it.
- Storage. Average storage below 425 L is not eligible for commercial VEECs at all. VEU asks for 700 L, or 425 L to 700 L where average heat pump capacity is above 20 kW. NSW has no equivalent floor.
- Victoria, the LoadFactor. Below 10 kW average, certificates are multiplied by 42 × N ÷ Commercial Peak Load, capped at 1, where N is the number of heat pumps. It applies to all three 44A activities. On the register today it runs as low as 0.11, so a system can earn a ninth of what its modelling alone would suggest.
- New South Wales, the ConfidenceFactor. Same trigger, but the formula is 42 ÷ Peak Load with no N, so it cuts a multi-heat-pump system several times harder than the VEU version. NSW also caps any one installation at 5,000 certificates per item of equipment, and heat pumps joined by manifold count as one item.
Typical certificate values, replacing electric
What commercial heat pump water heaters currently on the two registers actually earn, by total capacity band. Computed from each product's own registered modelling outputs, so every figure here is one you can look up. One installation sits in one AS/NZS 4234 climate zone and creates that zone's certificates, so these are zone 4, Melbourne and most of Victoriazone 3, Sydney and coastal NSW. Only systems averaging 10 kW or more per heat pump are counted, which is where neither scheme's small-system factor applies. See the note above for what happens below that.
| Capacity | VEEC median | Range (P10–P90) | ≈ value | Systems |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–75 kW | 9882,081 | 793–1,3021,770–2,907 | $84k$62k | 2417 |
| 75–150 kW | 2,0494,251 | 1,615–2,7503,360–5,000 | $174k$128k | 3225 |
| 150 kW+ | 3,2235,000at the 5,000 cap | 2,364–3,736all 11 at the cap | $274k$150k | 1111 |
Dollar figures at $85/VEEC. VEU Activity 44A(ii), register snapshot 2026-08-30.Dollar figures at $30/ESC. ESS Activity F16 electric, register snapshot 2026-08-30. Gas replacement and new installations earn less, roughly 35 to 50% of the electric-replace figures. Every registered system above 150 kW hits the 5,000 certificate limit in ESS clause 9.9.5, and 5 of the 25 systems between 75 and 150 kW hit it as well, which is why those figures stop there. Your own certificate quantity comes from full AS/NZS 4234 TRNSYS modelling of your specific system, not from this table.
Estimate your system
The estimator below is pre-filled with a 200 kW system at the storage-per-kW the VEU register's own commercial systems run. Adjust the capacity, tank volume, refrigerant and climate zone to match yours, and say whether the heat pump heats through a coil inside the tank, which moves the answer more than any other single detail. Results are a typical midpoint and a P10–P90 range for one installation in one zone, not a single figure.
How the estimator was built
We ran around 180,000 annual AS/NZS 4234 simulations across the commercial design space, then trained a machine-learning model on the results to predict the certificate-bearing load. Checked against the commercial systems on the live VEU register, it predicts the electric-replacement VEEC count to a median error of 6% and a mean of 10%.
It reads only five things about your system: capacity, tank volume, refrigerant, climate zone, and whether there is a coil in the tank. Everything else that moves a real result, including setpoints, sensor positions, deadbands, pipework and pump control, is averaged over. That is the limit on the accuracy here, and it is why a registered certificate quantity still needs your specific system modelled in full.
Certificates are created per installation, for the climate zone the system is installed in. The VEU covers zone 4 and zone 5.
Combined EN 14511 rated capacity of all heat pump units, at the A20/W20 rating condition (20 °C air, 20 °C entering water). That is the point the model is built on, so another condition will skew the result. Not the model name either: Mitsubishi's 120Q-2-2000 is four Q-ton units rated 103.2 kW in total, not 120. Modelled range 9–736 kW.
Both schemes cut certificates once the average heat pump capacity, meaning total capacity divided by this number, falls below 10 kW. Four 5 kW units and one 20 kW unit are both 20 kW of plant and earn very different counts. Average here is 200.0 kW per unit.
Combined storage across all tanks. Modelled range 403–85,741 L.
Refrigerant of the heat pump units.
A coil changes how much of the tank the heat pump can actually reach, so it moves the answer more than any other single detail.
EnergyAE reference VEEC price, reviewed 2026-07-07 (live market feed unavailable). Edit to model a different price.
We don't publish equipment costs. Enter yours to see how much of it the certificate value offsets.
Estimated VEECs per installation
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric · zone 4 · ±10% typical error on public inputs
One installation of a system like this in zone 4 typically earns 3,295–4,688 VEECs, worth roughly $280,075–$398,480 at $85/VEEC.
At a glance — VEECs per installation, by capacity
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric, zone 4, CO₂, 55 L/kW storage (the register median). Updates with the toggles above.
| Capacity | Typical VEEC | Range (P10–P90) | ≈ value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 kW | 404 | 320–456 | $34,340 |
| 50 kW | 1,038 | 823–1,171 | $88,230 |
| 100 kW | 2,036 | 1,614–2,297 | $173,060 |
| 200 kW | 4,156 | 3,295–4,688 | $353,260 |
Estimates come from a surrogate model of EnergyAE's AS/NZS 4234 simulation engine, fitted to 20,702 peak-load points located by 178,875 annual simulations, then put through the regulated VEU Activity 44 and ESS Schedule F equations. Each climate zone is predicted in its own right rather than scaled off one zone, and the figure shown is for ONE installation in the zone you pick, which is how certificates are created.
The P10–P90 range is measured against the 3 refrigerants and 72 commercial systems on the live VEU Activity 44 register, so it reflects how far this estimate sits from real registered outcomes rather than from the simulation it was fitted to.
The VEU LoadFactor and ESS ConfidenceFactor are applied where average heat pump capacity is below 10 kW (42 × N / peak load for the VEU, 42 / peak load for the ESS, both capped at 1), and ESS counts are capped at 5,000 per item of end-user equipment under clause 9.9.5.
Figures are AS/NZS 4234-validated factors (EEFm 0.393, ElecCCF 1.06, GasCCF 0.47, metro network factor). They are an estimate for business-case purposes only — a registered certificate quantity requires full TRNSYS modelling of your specific system.
Real registered systems
The estimator above predicts a typical range. Below are actual commercial heat pump systems on the VEU and ESS registers — pick a brand to see the certificates computed from each registered model's modelling outputs, by climate zone. Only currently eligible systems are shown.
Only brands with currently eligible registered commercial systems are listed.
EnergyAE reference VEEC price, reviewed 2026-07-07 (live market feed unavailable). Edit to model a different price.
If the new heat pump capacity exceeds the replaced system's capacity, both schemes scale the certificates by a capacity factor of existing ÷ new. Leave blank to assume matched capacity (factor 1).
Under the current VEU specifications (v23.0), certificate counts are the same for metro and regional installations.
Counts are computed from the public register's modelling outputs (register snapshot 2026-09-10) using the regulated equations: VEU Specifications 2018 v25.0 Part 44 and ESS Rule Schedule F (EEFm 0.393, ElecCCF 1.06, GasCCF 0.47). ESS counts are capped at 5,000 per item of end-user equipment under clause 9.9.5.
One factor is missing, and it matters. Both schemes cut certificates where a system's average heat pump capacity (total capacity divided by the number of heat pumps) is below 10 kW: the VEU LoadFactor and the ESS ConfidenceFactor. The register does not yet publish capacity or the number of heat pumps for every model, so neither factor can be applied to all of these rows. Most registered commercial systems are several small heat pumps manifolded onto one tank and do fall below 10 kW average, and for those the counts below are overstated, in the worst cases by around nine times. Ask us for the figure for a specific system.
They are an estimate for business-case purposes only. A lodged certificate claim depends on the specific installation, its climate zone, eligibility at the time of creation, and the scheme rules then in force.
The EnergyAE method
Five steps from product to certificates
The same five steps run on every heat pump water heater we take to the schemes. Each one uses the output of the step before it, so running them out of order means doing the work twice. Below is what each step covers for a commercial system, and the design step is the one that matters most, because a refrigerant, a storage split or a sensor position sets a ceiling the other four cannot lift.
Design
Topology, refrigerant, capacity and storage split, control setpoints and sensor positions. Storage volume and heat pump capacity also decide eligibility outright, so this step sets a ceiling the other four cannot lift.
Eligibility and rule changes →Test
EN 14511 third-party testing builds the heat pump performance map, plus AS/NZS 4692.1 tank heat loss for tanks up to 700 L. The test matrix is chosen before the lab starts, because it bounds what the model can show.
Choosing EN 14511 conditions →Model
AS/NZS 4234 annual simulation in TRNSYS finds the Commercial Peak Load per climate zone, which is the quantity both schemes pay on. VEU covers zones 4 and 5, ESS covers zones 3 and 5.
How results become certificates →Certify
For tanks up to 700 L: AS/NZS 2712, electrical certification on EESS, and warranty evidence to Australian Consumer Law wording. Above 700 L most of that falls away, which is why the certification load on a large commercial system is lighter than on a residential one.
Documents required →Register
Applications lodged and tracked on the VEU Activity 44 and ESS IHEAB registers. Approval usually lands in 6 to 8 weeks where the document set is complete and internally consistent.
The registration path →→ Every install of a registered system then creates deemed certificates, sold into the scheme market
EnergyAE runs all five steps, and we can pick the path up wherever you are now. We have modelled 177 commercial heat pump water heater systems under AS/NZS 4234, which is the experience behind this page rather than the data behind the estimator. See our incentive schemes service for the end-to-end offering, or all our technical guides for the detail behind each step.
Read more about the commercial schemes
Our guides cover how the VEU and ESS schemes treat commercial heat pumps in detail.
Registering commercial HPWHs for VEU and ESS
The 2026 step-by-step guide to registering a commercial heat pump for VEECs and ESCs.
Read the guide →How modelling results become certificates
How AS/NZS 4234 model outputs convert into VEEC and ESC certificate counts.
Read the guide →Commercial HPWH registration FAQ
Common questions on eligibility, capacity, refrigerants and the registration process.
Read the guide →See all technical guides.
See what your product is worth
Tell us about your system and we will talk you through what it would earn under the VEU and ESS schemes, what testing it needs, and what registration involves.