Commercial HPWH certificate range estimator
Estimate the VEEC (Victoria) or ESC (NSW) opportunity for a 10–200 kW commercial heat pump water heater from inputs you already know: capacity, tank volume and refrigerant. Results are a typical midpoint and a P10–P90 range, not a single figure.
Certificates are created per installation, for the climate zone the system is installed in. The VEU covers zone 4 and zone 5.
Combined EN 14511 rated capacity of all heat pump units, at the A20/W20 rating condition (20 °C air, 20 °C entering water). That is the point the model is built on, so another condition will skew the result. Not the model name either: Mitsubishi's 120Q-2-2000 is four Q-ton units rated 103.2 kW in total, not 120. Modelled range 9–736 kW.
Both schemes cut certificates once the average heat pump capacity, meaning total capacity divided by this number, falls below 10 kW. Four 5 kW units and one 20 kW unit are both 20 kW of plant and earn very different counts. Average here is 200.0 kW per unit.
Combined storage across all tanks. Modelled range 403–85,741 L.
Refrigerant of the heat pump units.
A coil changes how much of the tank the heat pump can actually reach, so it moves the answer more than any other single detail.
EnergyAE reference VEEC price, reviewed 2026-07-07 (live market feed unavailable). Edit to model a different price.
We don't publish equipment costs. Enter yours to see how much of it the certificate value offsets.
Estimated VEECs per installation
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric · zone 4 · ±10% typical error on public inputs
One installation of a system like this in zone 4 typically earns 3,295–4,688 VEECs, worth roughly $280,075–$398,480 at $85/VEEC.
At a glance — VEECs per installation, by capacity
VEU Activity 44A(ii) — replace electric, zone 4, CO₂, 55 L/kW storage (the register median). Updates with the toggles above.
| Capacity | Typical VEEC | Range (P10–P90) | ≈ value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 kW | 404 | 320–456 | $34,340 |
| 50 kW | 1,038 | 823–1,171 | $88,230 |
| 100 kW | 2,036 | 1,614–2,297 | $173,060 |
| 200 kW | 4,156 | 3,295–4,688 | $353,260 |
Estimates come from a surrogate model of EnergyAE's AS/NZS 4234 simulation engine, fitted to 20,702 peak-load points located by 178,875 annual simulations, then put through the regulated VEU Activity 44 and ESS Schedule F equations. Each climate zone is predicted in its own right rather than scaled off one zone, and the figure shown is for ONE installation in the zone you pick, which is how certificates are created.
The P10–P90 range is measured against the 3 refrigerants and 72 commercial systems on the live VEU Activity 44 register, so it reflects how far this estimate sits from real registered outcomes rather than from the simulation it was fitted to.
The VEU LoadFactor and ESS ConfidenceFactor are applied where average heat pump capacity is below 10 kW (42 × N / peak load for the VEU, 42 / peak load for the ESS, both capped at 1), and ESS counts are capped at 5,000 per item of end-user equipment under clause 9.9.5.
Figures are AS/NZS 4234-validated factors (EEFm 0.393, ElecCCF 1.06, GasCCF 0.47, metro network factor). They are an estimate for business-case purposes only — a registered certificate quantity requires full TRNSYS modelling of your specific system.